Case Study

We helped one of the world’s busiest airports to forecast Retail sales per passenger for 5 years; supporting a regulated business plan which offered multi-million GBP benefits.

Client situation

  • Client was the operator of the UK’s busiest airport serving over 80m passengers pa
  • Retail was a vital engine of its commercial performance with sales of >£2bn


  • It was vital for our client to be able to project Retail sales by terminal and category for 5 years out, for two reasons:
  • To support the commercial planning of the Retail offer (mix, which Brands etc)
  • To support economic submissions to the regulator (CAA)
  • There are many complex internal, macro economic, passenger mix and interacting drivers of retail spend per passenger including marketing making forecasting very challenging

What we did

  • Conducted multiple, complex regression modelling of all drivers of passenger spend to identify and quantify the drivers of Retail spend (down to Category/Terminal level)
  • Generated 5 year projections of Retail sales per passenger
  • Measured the actual outcomes compared to forecast: they were +/- 1% for the first 18 months


“The RRI work contributed significantly to multi-million £ revenue benefits and is a key platform for shaping our planning… gives us confidence to identify growth levers and refocus marketing spend.”
– D Ellis, Head of Research and Insight

“The RRI model provides a comprehensive rationale for drivers of sales and a plausible set of projections.”
– Regulator

Next steps

Find out how we can help you measure the impact of your marketing